The Fall of the American Empire (?)

These are some ideas I came up with this morning on the way to work. The inspiration came from a CBC article I read about U.S. credit debt.



The age of American dominance is over. This 'recession' talk is nothing. The U.S. is heading full tilt into a major depression at least equal to the 1930s.

Lets look at what we know. 8000 american families are having their homes foreclosed on them every day. People are simply unable to pay their debts. For approximately the last year, this problem has been escalating, and no matter how much the media and experts try to paint a silver lining onto the cloud, reports keep coming out about how much more trouble the economy is in compared to yesterday.

Now, reports are coming in that Americans are beginning to default on their credit card debt. This is ironic to me because I would personally be paying my mortgage before I paid any money to the credit card company. What use is a piece of plastic if I have no house to live in? Anyway, people are missing their payments, or putting down a mere fraction of what they owe. The credit card companies, in response to this, jack up their interest rates as punishment. Now the money the people couldn't afford to pay before is now not even covering interest payments, let alone the meager amount of principle the was at least being paid before.

Next will come personal loans, car loans, and basically every other type of debt millions of Americans are carrying every month. People are losing their homes, then will probably lose their jobs because they're showing up to work in rags, or not at all. The banks will be unable to make up their bottom line because all of the money they lent out is effectively gone forever. Bear Stearns has shown us that the largest of the large banks are not safe from this crisis.

People are going to be terrified to put their money anywhere but under a mattress, and rightfully so. We've been told for months that markets like China would be a safe haven for investors, and now reports are coming out that the Chinese market is going to suffer as much or even more in 2008 as the American one is. This seems pretty apparent to anyone who has money in a Chinese Equity fund: -30% growth over the last six months. If you put $100,000 into one of these funds last summer, you've lost $30,000 without doing a thing. Since outlook is pretty negative at this point, people are getting out and cutting their losses. I work at a bank, and I have seen this firsthand.

So, the banks can't get back the money they lent out, and no-one is putting money back in to make up for it. That sounds like a yummy recipe for disaster.

People are going to start running for the banks, banks are going to call back their money, and no amount of federal intervention is going to save anyone because the intervention needed to be done five years ago. It's 1929 all over again.

This could potentially have been stopped long ago had the U.S. not jumped headfirst into another Vietnam, only this time with a leadership too blinded to see that it was a hopeless cause. Why is it that nobody in the upper levels of government knows that a man will fight until his legs are gone, and then he will crawl through the dirt, all to defend his home. No amount of technology and no number of weapons will ever win a war where you are threatening people's homes and families. Iraq is a lost cause. It will take 100 years to restabilize the region. And for what? Oil that will be unnecessary if we simply tell big oil companies to beat it so we can fully embrace the electric and other alternatively powered cars that we've had available for mass production for at least 20 years now?

So we have a war that is sucking millions of dollars a day out of the U.S. economy and has effectively shrouded the growing credit problems that finally burst out of the war's large shadow last year. Now the U.S. is in a war it can't stop and a credit crisis that is only getting worse and worse. This is the U.S. economy in a freefall. As a history student, I learned and saw and read about the conditions of the 1930s. It's scary to know that in my lifetime I will have to go through it as well.

Or will I? In the 1920s the U.S. was the major player on the world stage. Europe had just finished a devastating war that killed most of it's younger generation and left all of the major producing economies in ruin. China was on the early path that would lead it to a Communist government. Russia was just gathering itself back together after it's own Communist revolution. All of the world that wasn't the U.S. was basically in shambles.

Today things are much different. The EU is strong and powerful. Germany has a (mostly) fully functioning economy, one of the world's strongest. Russia has gone through democracy's birthing pangs and emerged as yet another totalitarian dictatorship, though this one with a powerful black market economy and immensely profitable natural resourses. China's GDP is increase at something like 10% per year and is set to become the largest economy in the world. India and Brazil are emerging as major players in the world. Things in all areas that aren't the U.S. seem to be on the up and up.

So here is the question: will the U.S. drag the world into another great depression, or is the rest of the world powerful enough to keep itself, and the Americans afloat as we head deeper into the 21st Century.

In any case, here is what we know. The U.S. is heading for a major depression. Whether or not it is a Great Depression or a Pretty Big Depression depends on the resilience of everyone else. The U.S. is no longer the major central trading partner for everyone. We can all trade with everyone else and the U.S. The world needs to remember that as the next few years plod along. Cementing this great global economy is the key to preventing another serious depression and all of the potential problems that that can create.

We certainly don't need a WWIII.

Full Circle

Ironman Canada is 5 days away. It feels weird to say that. Three years ago, when I decided to do this race after seeing a recap on TV, I was looking for something that would push my body to its absolute limits. I wanted a sport that would leave me wrecked at the end so I could feel a true sense of accomplishment.

Since that fateful day, I have grown to love this sport. My outlook changed; the desire to destroy myself in one glorious day of racing was replaced with a desire to live the triathlon lifestyle. Swim, bike, and run were integrated fully into my life. As I progress along with my training, my confidence (or should I say overconfidence?) grew to the point where I convinced myself Ironman would be easy and I should aim for a fast race with a good time.

Life got in the way however; I was forced to take a second job to make money and lost a lot of prime training time. Available hours were cut short and my workout sessions decreased in volume. Then a brutal IT Band problem appeared in my leg and all running was halted for four months. Ironman still felt within reach, but previous goals of glory and fast times evaporated.

Now, with only a few days to go, and having trained next-to-nothing (or so it feels like) for the last month, I feel like the race is going to be a mess. It will be hard, it will be hot, and I'll have to work my ass off just to finish.

That that makes me happy.

I'm back in the mental state where true enjoyment will come from being completely wrecked by the end of the race, no matter what my time. I want to feel like I was run over by a train when I cross that finish line, to hear the announcer (who I hope is Steve King) say I'm an Ironman, and then collapse into a blubbering mess, face kissing the warm concrete, content with all that has happened in my journey thus far.

Then again, maybe I'll go and end up with a Hawaii place. Crazy things like that happen, right?

New Balance Half Iron race report

Copied from www.yournextrace.com/wordpress

For some reason there can never be peace and quiet for me before big races. Something always needs to happen to shake things up, usually some freak sickness that goes away a day before the race, leaving me healthy but worried of lingering performance-draining effects. Well, this race was no different.

First, I expected my run to be a total write-off thanks to a bummed knee, so that was hanging over my head right up until the end of the 80km bike leg (yeah, it was only 80km, so not a “real” half iron race). The real problem this time, however, centered around my girlfriend Robin, who was also doing the race with me.

The day before the race we were at the start line for a mandatory meeting and bike check. After getting our bikes from the car and bringing them to the bike check tent, we realized that somewhere between car and bike check dude, one of the pedals from Robin’s bike had magically fallen off. It fell off in a crowd of 600 people all listening intently to this important meeting, so finding it was nigh impossible. So, 15 minutes before the bike store’s closing time and at least 15 minutes of driving away from the bike store, we were off, in an unfamiliar city, racing through the streets trying to make it to a store on time so we could buy a new set of pedals for a race that was 13 hours away.

We made it with about a minute to spare and saved what could have been a very tragic situation, as this race is a)expensive like all long course races and b)a necessary test of our racing skills before Ironman in August. Being unable to compete in this race would have been a pretty harsh blow to Robin so close to the big kahuna.

After that little shakeup, we spent a couple hours driving around Victoria trying to find a restaurant that wasn’t completely full and ended up at a great pasta place close to our hotel, starving, starving so bad. I ate enough for three people. It was great! After a quick car tour of the bike course we got to our hotel and fell asleep, mostly ready for the day ahead.

The weatherman had predicted rain, but race day was just perfect, with ok temperatures and clouds with some sunny breaks. It was a day for PBs.

I got down to the late a few minutes before my wave was set to go and realized that 2km is actually a pretty damn long distance. The large orange balls they use to mark the course went off so far into the distance that I was having trouble seeing them. This was a little disconcerting, but I had faith in my skills and knew it would just take a little time to get through my worst of the three sports.

About 700m into the swim I pulled something in my shoulder, not because I was pulling too hard, but because I had only been in my wetsuit once before this and I wasn’t fully comfortable swimming in it yet and it threw my form off. So the rest of the swim leg was a little painful. I made it out in exactly 40 minutes, not bad for me, but pretty slow compared to everyone else. I had to pee in transition and wasn’t in a really big rush for some reason so I was pretty slow getting on to the bike. After about 30 feet into the bike leg my legs were burning and I realized I had pretty much ZERO power. Score!

I rode along, suffering, and after a few minutes ate a Clif bar I brought with me. After about 20 minutes and some Gatorade I was in business: my legs regained some life and my drive turned on. From this point it was 2.5 hours of passing people and going fast. I estimate that I must have passed about 200 competitors throughout the day, but it was probably more than that based on my swim start time and how I finished compared to everyone else. It might have been more like 300. In any case, I pedaled steady and kept thinking to myself “just reel them in one by one,” and so I did. One or two others passed me on the bike, either slower swimmers and better cyclists than me, or people in the relay teams that started after I did. Passing people is just great for the confidence and I used each person I passed as a slingshot to the next.

As I approached the end of the bike my legs were getting pretty tired. I averaged about 150bpm on the bike which is 5 beats below my aerobic max (calculated using Mark Allen’s method) and a little harder than I probably should have gone. I was still expecting my knee to give out at the start of the run and figured I’d be walking it anyways so I didn’t care too much if I blew myself on the bike.

After a quick shoe change and another pee in transition, I was off on my run. This is where a miracle happened. I hit my perfect form instantly. In every other triathlon I’ve ever done, the run is usually a thing of pain and suffering (both a path to the dark side, as everyone knows), but this time I felt amazing. I hovered at my perfect HR of 155bpm and just cruised along, still passing people, occasionally being passed by the super fast competitors finishing their second lap of the course. At about 13km into the run my knee gave a little twinge that I expected to end my day, but I kept on running and kept it at bay. A Japanese man that I had been keeping pace with for most of the race was in front of me as we neared the end of 20k and I decided to give a final push, crossing the line feeling great and strong at 5 hours 9 minutes.

I couldn’t have been happier with my performance. Well, I would have liked a faster time, say in the 4-hour mark, but as far as body-feel went, it was perfect. If I can have a race like that in August, I will be a happy, happy man. If I don’t have a race like that…well, I can hopefully smile and at least remember what got me there.

Half Iron Fun!

Less than 3 weeks to go until the New Balance Half Iron in Victoria and I'm still tentative about running. A little over a month ago I pulled something while running and I've barely been able to go for more than 20 minutes at a time since then without pretty sharp pain in my left knee. Yesterday I ran in the morning for 30 minutes and seemed to be ok, and found that things seemed to be more stable when I kept my ankle/foot more rigid (as opposed to loose).

Anyhow, that 30 minute success story inspired me to give up foolish ideas of not competing in the half iron and reserve a hotel room for the trip. I've been getting some great cycling in over the last month or two so I'm looking forward so seeing how that translates into race-day success.

I just need to keep on truckin, and hope for the best.

Ironman is less than 3 months away now. Getting a wee bit nervous.

Sick

Sorta sick.

My body feels "tingly" and I'm a little weak-feeling. At first I thought it was just a regular cold-type deal, but now I'm wondering if it's training related. I went for a ride to see mom for mother's day on Saturday (60k, 3 hours) and the next day was when I started to feel bad. I've done much longer, further rides before without problem but maybe this is a bit of overtraining. I was feeling a little more sluggish than usual this weekend, to the point where I made a point of not doing anything on Sunday (partly because I had no time, partly because I wanted a day off).

Hmmmm. I'll have to see how I feel over the next few days.

Always Move Forward

Obviously this is a phrase you hear from anyone who is going somewhere in life. Always look forward, never go back, etc. Well, today I mean it in a literal sense.

I've been unable to train for the last week due to a ton of work at my two jobs. This is good for the wallet, but bad for the legs. I got a chance to go for an hour long run today which felt great, but something was missing. I felt like I was working harder than I should and wasn't going as fast and I wanted. I attributed this to a lack of training over recent weeks, but then I stopped (mentally) and analysed my running style.

One thing I've been discovering in recent weeks is the importance of feeling the work I do propelling me in a forward motion. When I make myself do this, instantly everything I do feels much smoother and fluid; deadzones disappear, speed is increase, and effort feels less.

Today I tried to visualize a smooth forward motion while running and suddenly everything clicked into place. My form stabilized, power output went up, and effort went down. It was the perfect end to the workout.

Remember: visualize forward momentum. It may not drastically change your technique, but it will make you feel faster and more fluid. If nothing else it's good for the mind.

Hydration Matters (YNR Post)

Today I learned the importance of good hydration on the bike.

I set out to do a multi-hour ride this morning and had a blast. I got to explore more of my city, enjoyed the cool weather, and made a second trek up the hill to Simon Fraser University, this time up the back side of the hill which was much nicer than the hell that was the other road I took up last week.

Three hours into my ride, I was having trouble keeping my heart rate down. Riding that felt easy was still putting my HR in the high 140s and low 150s, which made absolutely no sense to me.

…until I realized that I had only had about half a bottle of Gatorade and almost no water since I left my house. Generally, my main concern on longer rides is having to pee; actually, more it’s finding a place to pee when I have to go. Public restrooms seem few and far between in my town.

In any case, I said screw it and downed a full bottle of Gatorade while waiting for a light to change. The scientist in me wanted to know if it would get my HR back down to normal levels, and how fast it would take to do so.

Somewhat surprising to me, it did! After a few minutes of riding my body felt a lot fresher and my HR went back into the 130s where I wanted it. I don’t know if I was expecting it to drop back to normal so fast, but I was sure glad it did. I was thinking of taking a Skytrain and Bus home before that.

I recall reading somewhere that a lack of water in your body is just as sure a way to blow a race (or training) as having no calories/glycogen/food in your body. The body is a complex system and all parts of the engine need to be firing in order for you to reach your maximum potential.

I think from now on I’ll risk taking more pee breaks and focus on getting more hydrated as I ride. Maybe I should just learn to pee on the bike, then I’ll be all set!